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Sunday, 12 April 2009

The World has cooled: Predictable responses

Although the data is not yet finalised, the WMO has said that the 2008 annual global temperature will be 0.31 deg C above the average, that is lower than the constant level seen since 2001. The world has cooled - it's official. There has now been ten consecutive and consistent data points less than the 1998 record.The press releases either do not mention the trend (Friends of Earth) or say, accurately, that 2008 is the tenth warmest year on record. However, none point out that this makes 2008 the first year for over a decade when the errors in the measurement overlap the errors in the measurement for 1980 which was before the current phase of global warming. The Met Office says the cool 2008 (and presumably 2007) was due to la Nina which although present has been declining in strength all year.Care must be taken when looking at Met Office press releases concerning global warming. On 4th Jan 2007 they said 2007 was to be the warmest year ever - it wasn't by a long way. On 14th Dec 2006 they said that 2006 was a year for the record books when 2006 was actually the 6th warmest year on record. To be fair it did say on 3rd Jan 2008 that 2008 would be in the top ten years which it is - barely. This very poor track record in prediction must be set alongside what Dr Peter Stott says in the Met Office's current release..."Comparing observations with the expected response to man-made and natural drivers of climate change it is shown that global temperature is now over 0.7 °C warmer than if humans were not altering the climate."It doesn't seem that the observations and the predicted response, as evidenced by the Met Office's track record, has been anything other than very poor.Dr Stott also says that the world is 0.7 deg C warmer than what it would be without man's activities. This is nonsense. Looking at their own graphs 2001-2008 is about 0.20 deg C at most above the level of the 1970s. Look for yourself, the link is here and here and here

The data for 2009 will be fascinating. Will the Met Office issue another
press release in January predicting that it will be another top ten year when there is no la Nina?...........Councillors to note.

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